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World Cup: The Best Penalty Takers Revealed
Could spot kick success be the Socceroo's secret weapon in Russia 2018?
The excitement, the tension, the stakes; just a few components that will make the World Cup 2018 such exciting football to watch. With so much on the line, every goal will make a difference, with that making each penalty an opportunity to shift the odds and earn a potential win. But are those penalties down to sheer luck or is there more strategy involved?
JD Sports analysed over 300 penalties, including career statistics from 22 penalty takers and 11 goalkeepers.
The Best Penalty Takers - Career Stats
- Australia’s Mile Jedinak scored 100% of penalties in his career
- Messi and Ronaldo took and successfully scored 33% of all career penalties
- The average conversion rate of all penalties was 76%
Of the 22 players analysed, Australia’s Mile Jedinak is the only player to successfully convert every penalty taken in his career. Other players good career conversion rates (beating both Ronaldo and Messi even) include: Olivier Giroud, Marco Reus, Aaron Mooy, Zlatan Ibrahimović and Eden Hazard.
The 2018 Football Writers & PFA player of the year Mohamed Salah statistically has a better career conversion rate than Lionel Messi but slightly worse conversion rate than Cristiano Ronaldo. Lionel Messi has also missed the most penalties of all the players analysed in total.
Mile Jedinak
Of the 22 penalty takers analysed in our survey, Mile Jedinak has the best career penalty conversion rate (100%;) scoring all 15 of his penalties taken.
Jedinak has a better penalty conversion rate than some of the world’s greatest soccer players, including: Cristiano Ronaldo (84%,) Lionel Messi (77%,) Eden Hazard (87%,) Mohamed Salah (83%,) Luis Suárez (77%) Neymar (81%,) and Zlatan Ibrahimović (87%.) An impressive statistic for the current Aston Villa man.
Despite some of the bigger names like Ronaldo, Messi and Ibrahimović taking significantly more career penalties than Jedinak, he has a perfect career penalty conversion rate. If they get a penalty in the group stage or take part in a penalty shootout during the knockout stages, Socceroo’s fans should be confident, as Jedinak always delivers. But why is Mile Jedinak so good at penalties?
If we look at his last 10 penalties Jedinak’s key strength is his unpredictability. He has no clear pattern, favoured side or even part of the goal, making it virtually impossible for goalkeepers to predict which way the Australian will go. You could even say is spot kick routine is completely random. This will certainly make it difficult for opposing goalkeepers and statisticians when analysing his career or even most recent penalties.
Interestingly also whenever Jedinak takes and scores a penalty the Socceroo’s very rarely lose. In the 8 games where Jedinak has successfully scored a penalty they have won 4, drawn 2, and lost 2. Meaning that they have a 75% chance of either winning or drawing when he scores a penalty, with only a 25% chance of losing. Also in his favour is the fact that he has taken and scored penalties at the top level, In the 2014 World Cup, Premier League (for Crystal Palace,) World Cup Qualifiers and Playoffs. Statistically Jedinak is the most reliable penalty taker out of the 22 takers analysed which is good for the Socceroo’s, but what about his teammates?
Aaron Mooy
Statistically based on his career penalty conversion rate Aaron Mooy is the 4th best penalty taker we analysed out of 22 internationals. Meaning the Socceroo’s have two players in the top 5 best penalty takers based on conversion rate. Boasting an impressive career conversion rate of 90% only Marco Reus (91%,) Olivier Giroud (94%,) and Mooy’s Australian team mate Mile Jedinak (100%) have better career penalty conversion rates. Like Jedinak statistically Mooy has a better career conversion rate than the likes of Ibrahimović, Hazard, Ronaldo, Salah, Vardy, Pogba and Neymar despite taking significantly less penalties than some of the bigger names. Mooy has scored 9 of his 10 career penalties taken, his only unsuccessful penalty came against Preston North End in the 16/17 Championship season.
Unlike His Australian team mate Jedinak, Mooy certainly likes to put his penalties in certain place. 5 out of his last 10 penalties have gone flush into the bottom left of the goal: This suggests that if you were an international goalkeeper facing him you would probably want to dive to your bottom right.
Despite the somewhat pattern with Mooy’s penalties, when he does score in the bottom left, these penalties pretty much all hit the side netting or bottom corner after going in. It would take an impressive save to stop these kind of penalties. Mooy also opts more for placement using the side of his foot whereas Jedinak more often than not goes for power.
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Best Penalty Takers: Current Form
- The average conversion rate was 76%
- Australian players Mile Jedinak and Aaron Mooy have the highest conversion rates (100% and 90%)
- 76% of all penalties in our research were goals
We also looked at current form to show how consistent relevant players are ahead of the World Cup. We looked at the most recent 10 penalties taken by all 22 international takers. Interestingly, the average conversion rate of the 22 players was less than the average career conversion rate over career. This could suggest that goalkeepers are saving more penalties in recent years, or even that some of the top internationals are becoming less prolific from the spot when it comes to scoring penalties.
Of all, Jedinak is the most consistent penalty taker based on current form, scoring 10 out of 10 penalties taken with a perfect form record. Mooy has scored 9 out of 10 penalties, missing just one, proving to be one of the top penalty takers overall. Cristiano Ronaldo features again in the top and is bang in form at the moment, scoring 9 out of his last 10 penalties. Cristiano Ronaldo, Marco Reus, Olivier Giroud and Aaron Mooy all have an excellent penalty conversion rate, with Mohamed Salah and Paul Pogba slightly lower. Neymar, Jamie Vardy, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Tim Cahill and Harry Kane all have a good conversion rate of all scoring 8 out of their last 10 penalties. Real Madrid and Spain Captain Sergio Ramos has a below average form conversion rate, having only taken 8 penalties in his career.
The Worst Penalty Takers
Worst Penalty Takers: Career Stats
- Antione Griezmann has the worst career conversion rate of all at 60%
- The average conversion rate was 81%
In his career Griezmann has taken 15 penalties scoring only 9 and missing 6. Similarly, Germany and Arsenal’s Mesut Özil had a below par average conversion. The stats showed Lionel Messi isn’t as good at taking penalties as many people think compared to other international players, missing the most penalties.
It is important to note that players like Ronaldo, Messi, Ibrahimović, Hazard and Neymar have taken significantly more penalties overall than some of the other players listed. As a result, many football fans could argue that because of this these are the more reliable and proven penalty takers in highly pressurised situations.
Worst Penalty Takers: Current Form
- Thomas Müller is the worst penalty taker, with a conversion rate of 50%
Based on recent form; Germany and Bayern Munich’s Thomas Müller has been unsuccessful in 5 of his last 10 penalties, with attempts either missing the target or being saved. The stats suggest that Lionel Messi and Mesut Özil are out of form recently, scoring only 6 of their last 10 penalties. Antoine Griezmann, Cesc Fàbregas and Luis Suárez have converted 7 of their last 10 penalties, but this was still below the current form average.
Best & Worst Goalkeepers
Mathew Ryan
Out of the 11 International Goalkeepers analysed in our survey Mathew Ryan has the best career penalty save rate (37%.) Ryan has saved 11 of the 30 penalties he has faced which is very impressive.
Best Goalkeepers: Current Form
Based on current form and the last 10 penalties faced, statistically Mathew Ryan is the 2nd best goalkeeper with a penalty save rate of 40%. Ryan has saved 4 of the last 10 penalties faced and only Manchester City’s Ederson has a better penalty save rate (50%,) saving 5 out of his last 10 penalties faced. Again impressive stats for the Australian showing that he is bang in form.
Please note: penalties that have been taken and missed the target have been discounted from the goalkeepers save rate.
Ryan’s last 10 penalties faced
If we look at Ryan’s last 10 penalties, we can see he has successfully saved 4 out of 10 penalties. For penalty takers facing Ryan they should certainly go down the middle as based on his last 10 penalties he always dives and never stays in the centre of his goal.
If shooting down the middle isn’t an option, they should aim to the right (goalkeepers bottom left,) as he dives here only 30% of the time. Of course spot kicks very often are based on the situation and player’s instinct in the moment, but many penalty takers, goalkeepers and indeed statisticians will look into these types of trends. Other players may not and make their mind up in the moment or even the body language of their opponent.
In summary, in a penalty shootout situation, based on career stats and current form of both their main penalty takers and goalkeeper the Socceroo’s should be very confident. The stats and data suggest that the Socceroo’s have 2 two of the top 5 best penalty takers based on (a) their career penalty conversion stats and (b) form penalty conversion stats. Not to mention they have the keeper with the best career penalty save rate and 2nd best form penalty save rate.
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